Stage 4 winter load-shedding warning

Impower energy expert Matthew Cruise says Eskom’s sudden need to implement stage 2 load-shedding during the evening peaks is a bad sign for the winter, with unplanned outages and other capacity losses reaching 15,868MW.

He believes South Africans should prepare for load-shedding up to stage 4 this winter.

Presenting its Winter Outlook 2025 on 5 May 2025, the power utility indicated that no load-shedding would be required if unplanned capacity losses remained below 13,000MW.

However, it said 21 days of up to stage 2 load-shedding would be required if the unplanned capacity loss factor (UCLF) reached 15,000MW, which it already exceeded on Monday, 12 May.

This is according to Eskom’s hourly UCLF and other capacity loss factor trend chart, which shows that the combined losses passed 15,680MW at 23:00 on Tuesday.

“Eskom is not giving much detail about what has been going on at the individual power stations,” Cruise said in an interview with 702.

“We’re currently at 15,680MW in terms of unplanned outages. So we’ve gone way past the 15,000MW that they said would lead to stage 2 load-shedding this winter.”

He said these recent losses are problematic, considering South Africa is still in the early winter period and that demand is expected to continue rising.

“We can actually expect that there’s going to be load-shedding up to stage 4, so we need to prepare for that,” said Cruise.

MyBroadband asked Eskom to confirm the current UCLF. The power utility sent the power alert, which was issued just before 13:00 on Tuesday, 13 May 2025.

The alert stated that delays in returning several units from planned maintenance, coupled with the unplanned loss of 1,385MW of generating capacity, meant UCLF had “temporarily exceeded 13,000MW”.

However, its hourly UCLF and other outages chart shows that losses had already exceeded 14,000MW at 09:00 on Monday, 12 May, before dropping slightly by 10:00, and then continuing to climb.

Below is Eskom’s UCLF and other outages chart, showing a peak of 15,686MW at 23:00 on Monday, 12 May.

Winter Outlook remains valid — Ramokgopa

During a media briefing on Wednesday, 13 May 2025, electricity and energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa said Eskom’s 2025 Winter Outlook remains in effect.

He emphasised that the power utility is entering the winter demand period on much better footing than in 2024.

The minister said Eskom has approximately 2,500MW of additional generation capacity compared to the same time in 2024.

“That’s why when we shared with the country a week ago, we were very bullish and optimistic about the prospects of a load-shedding-free winter,” said Ramokgopa.

“Or at worst, stage 2 load-shedding if certain risks were to materialise.”

The winter outlook indicated that if the aggregate UCLF, which includes delays in returning units and unit breakdowns, exceeds 13,000MW, then load-shedding would be required.

“We did say we think that we should not exceed 15,000MW again. Now we have breached that line as a result of this outage, and we’re on the other side of 13,000MW,” said Ramokgopa.

“That’s why we had to initiate load-shedding.”

Regarding the units facing delays in returning to service from planned maintenance, Ramokgopa said a “multiplicity of reasons” is to blame.

One of which is a failure on Eskom’s part to ensure proper management of original equipment manufacturers (OEMs).

“Those units have not come back as a result of a multiplicity of reasons. Some of them had to do with third-party players, the contractors, the OEMs, that have not delivered,” the minister said.

“That’s not for the public. I think that’s for us to manage so this represents a failure on our part to ensure that there’s proper management of OEMs”.